Jan/Feb 1996 ~ No. 20
Service Matters is a publication of the Association of Bay Area Governments, the planning and services agency for the San Francisco Bay Area's 9 counties and 100 cities.


PROJECTIONS 1996


BAY AREA TO GET A MILLION JOBS AND MORE THAN
A MILLION NEW RESIDENTS

The nine county Bay Area will add 1.2 million new residents over the next twenty years, bringing the total population for the region to just under 7,721,000. The economy should generate demand for nearly one million new jobs by the year 2015, with the total number of jobs forecast to be nearly 4,022,000. These numbers, and a great deal of specific data for cities and counties, was published recently by ABAG in Projections 96.

According to Projections, the greatest rates of growth will be in the North Bay's Napa, Solano and Sonoma Counties, and the East Bay's Contra Costa County. These counties will consistently hold the top four rankings for rates of growth in population, numbers of households, employed residents, and new jobs between 1995 and 2015. Solano County is slated to be the growth leader in all categories over the next twenty years, with a 40% increase in population, a 68% increase in jobs, a 46% increase in the number of households, and a 55% increase in the number of employed residents.

Among counties, San Francisco will grow at the slowest rate in all categories over the next twenty years: a 5% increase in population, a 9% increase in the number of households, a 10% increase in the number of employed residents, and a 19% increase in jobs.

FOR THE YEAR 2015 TOTAL POPULATION TOTAL JOBS
ALAMEDA COUNTY 1,591,500 810,320
CONTRA COSTA COUNTY 1,169,400 446,140
MARIN COUNTY 278,150 135,970
NAPA COUNTY 152,500 79,950
SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY 795,800 638,670
SAN MATEO COUNTY 755,350 405,720
SANTA CLARA COUNTY 1,880,650 1,042,830
SOLANO COUNTY 531,700 205,130
SONOMA COUNTY 565,900 257,050
REGIONAL TOTAL 7,720,950 4,021,780



MODERATE ECONOMIC RECOVERY FORECASTED

Contra Costa County will add the most residents (286,700) over the next twenty years and the greatest amount of new households (108,690). Alameda County will see the largest increase in the number of employed residents (177,000) and Santa Clara County will gain the most new jobs (215,480).

Despite a high rate of growth, Napa County will add the fewest number of residents (31,350 which is 26% growth), the fewest jobs (only 29,950 but a 60% increase), the least number of new households (12,490 or 28% more), and the smallest number of employed residents (18,900 more for a 35% increase).

Jobs and Economy
Most of the region will fully recover from the recession in 1996, although Alameda and Santa Clara Counties will not recover their 1990 employment levels until 1997, and San Francisco will not achieve those levels until 1999.

New high technology industries will be an important source of new jobs, especially in Southern Alameda County; but the most new jobs, over 441,000, will be added in the services sector (covering a wide range of jobs from janitorial to engineering).

San Francisco will gain about 105,000 new jobs, the most of any city in the region. Among mid-size cities, Santa Rosa will add the most new jobs, with 41,530; Fremont will rank second with 34,390 new jobs. For smaller cities, Fairfield is projected to gain 25,410 new jobs. The most dramatic job growth will occur in medium to small cities (under 60,000). The East Bay's Tri-Valley (Dublin, Livermore and Pleasanton) will gain 73,300 jobs between 1995 and 2015 (a 59% increase over the 1995 estimate!). The Napa Airport Industrial Area will grow at the highest rate, with an expected 1100% job increase.



POPULATION GROWTH BY COUNTY 1995 - 2015

Contra Costa + 286,700
Santa Clara + 269,450
Alameda + 226,900
Solano + 152,350
Sonoma + 133,900
San Mateo + 58,900
San Francisco + 35,900
Marin + 32,550
Napa + 31,350



TOP FIVE CITIES FOR POPULATION GROWTH 1995 - 2015

1. San Jose + 160,100
2. Fairfield + 58,900
3.Antioch + 50,400
4. Dublin + 48,300
5. Santa Rosa + 43,600



TOP FIVE CITIES FOR NEW JOBS 1995 - 2015

1.San Francisco+ 104,060
2.San Jose+ 94,960
3.Santa Rosa+ 41,530
4.Fremont+ 34,390
5.Dublin+ 28,110


TAXABLE RETAIL SALES ON THE REBOUND

Retail trade continues to be a significant component of our regional economy. ABAG estimates that one out of every six job holders here works in the retail sector. Undeniably important as a source of employment, the retail sector is also significant for the generation of sales tax revenues. On average, sales tax revenues provide about 21% of the general revenues for Bay Area cities. Taxable sales are expected to reach $75.4 billion by 1996; this represents an increase of about three percent over the 1995 forecast level of $73 billion.

Durable Goods
New car sales will slow in 1996. Sales of building materials and major home items are soft due to the erratic nature of the recovery in housing. A stronger housing market would yield growth rates closer to 5% for furniture and appliances. Durable goods sales are reduced from previous years.

Nondurable Goods
The strength of wholesale/outlet stores has improved the outlook for general merchandise, while market shares for major department stores continue to decline. Specialty stores are slated to make a comeback. Improved consumer confidence has recharged purchases of non-essential items, such as jewelry, sporting equipment and gourmet foods.


Short Term Economic Conference January 25, 1996

For in-depth analysis of the retail outlook for 1996, attend ABAG's 8th annual short term economic conference: Thursday, January 25, 1996, MetroCenter auditorium, 101 Eighth Street, across from the Lake Merritt BART station. Call 510/464-7978 for more information.

Prepared by Eric Caindec, Regional Analyst (510/464-7943; e-mail: EricC@abag.ca.gov) and Paul Fassinger, Research Director (510/464-7928; e-mail: PaulF@abag.ca.gov).


JOB GROWTH BY SECTOR 1995 -2015

1.Services*441,370
2.Retail166,970
3.Manufacturing**130,020
4.Wholesale80,640
5.Trans/Comm/Util78,760
6.F.I.R.E.50,690
7.Construction46,540
8.Government4,490
9.Ag/Mining(- 5,990)
* Business Services 254,460
**High-Tech Mnftng. 70,620


TAXABLE RETAIL SALES GROWTH FOR 1996

SECTORGROWTH IN '96
Total Taxable Sales+3.2%
Retail+2.8%
Non-durables+2.7%
Apparel+0.7%
General Merchandise+3.5%
Specialty Stores+4.9%
Food Stores(-0.3%)
Restaurants/Bars+2.8%
Durables+3.1%
Home Furnishings+2.4%
Building Materials+2.2%
Automobile Dealers+3.8%
Business/Personal Services+4.9%
All Other Outlets+3.8%



NEW ABAG OFFICERS FOR 1996


PRESIDENT CHARLOTTE POWERS

Stepping up from her service as vice president, Charlotte Powers is now the president of ABAG and will be presiding over executive board meetings. She will also have ex-officio membership on all other committees.

A thirty year resident of San Jose, Powers was elected to the city council in November 1992. Prior to her election, she contributed 30 years to the field of education as teacher, library/media specialist, administrator, and staff development coordinator of Law Education programs.

Powers is the current chair of the San Jose; Housing and Community Services Committee and the Library Master Plan Task Force. She is a member of the City's Homeless Task Force, the Santa Clara County Transit Agency, and the League of California Cities' Housing, Community and Economic Development Commission.


VICE-PRESIDENT MARY KING

Serving as the first African-American woman on the Alameda County Board of Supervisors, Mary King will now add the ABAG vice presidency to her busy schedule.

Previously, chair of ABAG's Finance and Personnel Committee, King brings a wealth of experience to her new role as vice president. Her local government expertise is bolstered by her work experience; prior to her supervisorial election in 1988 (and re-election in 1992), she was an independent consultant to the board and managed the ground operations for Measure B (the Alameda County transportation bond). King also worked as assistant to the Oakland city manager, as chief of staff to the former mayor, and as chief of staff to State Senator Bill Lockyer.

Her current activities are many, but include the waste management authority, LAFCO, air quality management, base reuse, transportation/planning, and the Council of Institutional Investors.


LETTER FROM THE PRESIDENT


January 1, 1996

Dear Friends and Colleagues:

As the incoming president of ABAG for 1996, I would like to wish everyone a most productive and prosperous new year!

We all have a great deal to be proud of and much to look forward to throughout the Bay Area this year. The economy is on the way up again, and much of the region is beginning to recover from the recession. New jobs are being created, and retail activity is on an upswing. This economic growth is being distributed throughout the nine counties, and opportunities are expanding.

As an affirmation of the region's turnaround, Fortune magazine recently named the San Francisco Bay Area as the best place for business in the entire United States. As the article states, "The Bay Area is No 1 in America because it embraces great thinking and great living." Our region is referred to as "innovative," praised for embracing and capitalizing on its "extreme cultural diversity," and hailed for the appealing combination of jobs and living environment. The pride of living in the Bay Area is summed up by Carl Pascarella, President of VISA USA, who said, "I wake up in the morning and can't believe I'm here."

As elected officials, government employees, and participants in civic organizations, we are faced with the challenge of sharing this wealth of opportunity so that all residents of the Bay Area may be hopeful about the future. We must work to provide services for an expanding population while facing budget constraints. We face the task of designing innovative approaches to new dilemmas as well as recurring ones.

Together, we can meet our challenges and approach the 21st Century with optimism. The wealth of ingenuity, experience, and energy in the Bay Area is a resource that cannot be matched when pooled together with a common goal.

ABAG is our regional resource, ready and able to solve problems cooperatively, serve the public efficiently, and tackle the challenges of the future as a team. New projects such as the Bay Area Power Pool and abagOnline have been developed to serve you, while existing programs are taking new approaches, such as subregional planning.

I am pleased to serve as your ABAG President for 1996 and I look forward to working with all of you. It's going to be a great year!

Best wishes,

CHARLOTTE POWERS
ABAG President
Councilmember, Cith of San Jose


EXECUTIVE BOARD SCHEDULE FOR 1996

January 187:30 pm
March 217:30 pm
May 167:30 pm
July 187:30 pm
September 197:30 pm
October 177:30 pm


SAVE THE DATE!

ABAG Spring General Assembly
Friday, April 19, 1996
San Jose Fairmont Hotel



WASTE PREVENTION


BAY AREA SUPERMARKET CAMPAIGN ~
SHOP SMART, SAVE RESOURCES AND PREVENT WASTE

Buy What's Recycled - Recycle What You Buy
Did you know that a one gallon jug of spring water is 87% less expensive and produces 80% less waste than a six-pack of those "fashionable" 12 ounce plastic bottles? Or that buying raisins in a 1.5 pound plastic bag creates 97% less waste and is 47% less expensive than buying 14 mini-snack boxes in a bag? Or that steel cans contain an average 25% recycled content?

This kind of information is the focus of the Shop Smart: Save Resources and Prevent Waste Campaign coming to your local supermarket in January.

In a unique public-private partnership, more than 95 cities and counties in the Bay Area are working with 250 supermarkets (including all Safeway stores in the region, Petrini's, Nob Hill, Andronico's, and Real Food) to bring shoppers messages about the importance of waste prevention and buying products made with recycled content.

The purpose of the campaign is to show shoppers that purchasing decisions can help reduce waste, and to support local recycling programs by providing a market for goods made from recycled materials.

The Shop Smart Campaign will focus on the following concepts:

Shoppers will have a chance to win grocery certificates from participating supermarkets. Prizes include a $500 grocery gift certificate as a grand prize in each county, along with fifty $100 regional grocery gift certificate prizes. Shoppers will also find free educational booklets on buying recycled products, waste prevention and composting, as well as informational signs and an educational display unit in each supermarket.

Shop Smart is funded by the CA Integrated Waste Management Board in partnership with the League of California Cities, the Local Government Commission, the CA Department of Conservation, and the Steel Recycling Institute. To receive more information on the Shop Smart Campaign, call 1-800-953-4400.



BAY AREA EVENTS


FREE WORKSHOPS ~
REVIEWING GEOLOGIC REPORTS FOR YOUR LOCAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS

A series of free workshops are being offered for anyone who participates in or may be interested in using geologic information in support of development applications.

ABAG and the U.S. Geologic Survey, among others, will discuss the variety of data that is available for each county, and examples of the effective use of geologic maps and reports. These workshops are interactive!

Workshops are designed by Spangle and Associates under a grant from the USGS. Call 415/854-6001 for more information or e-mail spangle@batnet.com.

Workshops are as follows: